Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $9.00 on November 30, 2026?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 38¢ · $196 held · ends Dec 1

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$196.17

Combined PnL

$23.85

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$74.37

Total Shares354

Combined PnL+$24.77

Yes1 trader

Total Value$20.23

Total Shares24

Combined PnL-$0.92

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 83.5¢	$118.34	$101.58	-$16.76	41% 3007-4413 (7420)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 83.5¢	$106.19	$78.88	-$27.31
└ No leg	Noavg 20.3¢	$12.15	$22.7	+$10.55
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$44	$65.97	+$21.97	— 0-14 (14)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$21.14	$20.23	-$0.92	— 1-9 (10)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$4.2	$6.3	+$2.1	28% 827-2133 (2960)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$1.4	$2.1	+$0.7	35% 2910-5328 (8238)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$118.34

Value

$101.58

PnL

-$16.76

Record

41%

3007-4413 (7420)

Both legs:

Yes$106.1983.5¢-$27.31

No$12.1520.3¢+$10.55

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Invested

$44

Value

$65.97

PnL

+$21.97

Record

—

0-14 (14)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.14

Value

$20.23

PnL

-$0.92

Record

—

1-9 (10)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$2.1

Record

28%

827-2133 (2960)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$1.4

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.7

Record

35%

2910-5328 (8238)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.0%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$150.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

250.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.