Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 84¢ · $247 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$247.19
-$3.52
85.1¢ → 84¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 81.2¢ | $89.91 | $92.85 | +$2.95 | 41% 3108-4463 (7571) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 87.7¢ | $80.14 | $76.9 | -$3.24 | 12% 20-153 (173) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Yesavg 87¢ | $68.63 | $65.57 | -$1.78 | 4% 1-26 (27) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Yesavg 90¢ | $27.38 | $11.53 | -$1.62 | 5% 1-20 (21) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $0.15 | $0.32 | +$0.17 | 26% 858-2483 (3341) |
Invested
$89.91
Value
$92.85
PnL
+$2.95
Record
41%
3108-4463 (7571)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$80.14
Value
$76.9
PnL
-$3.24
Record
12%
20-153 (173)
Invested
$68.63
Value
$65.57
PnL
-$1.78
Record
4%
1-26 (27)
Invested
$27.38
Value
$11.53
PnL
-$1.62
Record
5%
1-20 (21)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.32
PnL
+$0.17
Record
26%
858-2483 (3341)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.