Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes77¢No23¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$379.11

Smart Money Entry

73.3¢ → 77¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$633.79

Total Shares645

Combined PnL+$363.99

No7 traders

Total Value$71.46

Total Shares365

Combined PnL+$15.13

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

63h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 64.1¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	+$142.44	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.1¢	$768.41	$982.51	+$101.45
└ No leg	Noavg 27.7¢	$392.89	$254.89	+$40.99
Istaroth	Yesavg 79.7¢	$590.39	$584.03	-$3.7	14% 503-3033 (3536)
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$66.48	$49.77	+$367.69	48% 1326-1419 (2745)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 50.4¢	$53.46	$19.08	-$34.38	49% 8939-9446 (18385)
LornaPredictsCTR	Noavg 25.4¢	$232.8	$18	+$44.41	20% 2639-10442 (13081)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$10.73	$10.73	+$0	33% 320-641 (961)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$9	$9	+$0	39% 562-865 (1427)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$1.83	$7	+$5.17	27% 6972-19073 (26045)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$6.75	$6.75	+$0	33% 470-950 (1420)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$1	$0.9	-$0.08	44% 2220-2864 (5084)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,922.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$142.44

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

Both legs:

Yes$768.4164.1¢+$101.45

No$392.8927.7¢+$40.99

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$590.39

Value

$584.03

PnL

-$3.7

Record

14%

503-3033 (3536)

SnapElectionAvoider<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.48

Value

$49.77

PnL

+$367.69

Record

48%

1326-1419 (2745)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$53.46

Value

$19.08

PnL

-$34.38

Record

49%

8939-9446 (18385)

LornaPredictsCTR

Invested

$232.8

Value

$18

PnL

+$44.41

Record

20%

2639-10442 (13081)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Invested

$10.73

Value

$10.73

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

320-641 (961)

zerone777CTR<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

562-865 (1427)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$1.83

Value

PnL

+$5.17

Record

27%

6972-19073 (26045)

pollo07CTR<$100

Invested

$6.75

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

470-950 (1420)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0.08

Record

44%

2220-2864 (5084)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

63h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.7%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.