Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the Ornn A100 Index be less than $0.50 on October 31, 2026?
Resolved No. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
No 73%
$444.1
-$169.56
Smart Money Signal
11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 95.8¢ | $142.79 | $149.06 | -$22.8 | 60% 7180-4743 (11923) |
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 99.9¢ | $134.87 | $135 | -$14.33 | 50% 7813-7864 (15677) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.85 | $50 | -$24.86 | 55% 25961-21246 (47207) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $39.96 | $40 | +$0.04 | 49% 9048-9543 (18591) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $30 | -$4.97 | 49% 7454-7779 (15233) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.93 | $20 | +$0 | 63% 12954-7737 (20691) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 73.7¢ | $10.62 | $13.04 | -$4.1 | 28% 5957-15587 (21544) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.99 | $7 | -$7.1 | 61% 13866-8714 (22580) |
E4 e46m3 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $200.35 | — | -$46.06 | 72% 12202-4798 (17000) |
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | -$11.58 | 49% 5502-5623 (11125) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $137.6 | — | -$22.38 | 79% 10621-2765 (13386) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $6.12 | — | -$1.11 | 35% 16955-31322 (48277) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $20.17 | — | -$3.34 | 17% 1026-4959 (5985) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $20 | — | -$3.31 | 30% 2189-5039 (7228) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0.01 | 55% 5875-4772 (10647) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$2.6 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.34 | — | -$0.34 | 18% 4056-19002 (23058) |
 GenaTheBondKilIerCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $312.37 | — | -$0.75 | 51% 528-511 (1039) |
0X 0xd361529b833f79206cea905500ddb56574144ccdCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | — 4-2 (6) |
Invested
$142.79
Value
$149.06
PnL
-$22.8
Record
60%
7180-4743 (11923)
Invested
$134.87
Value
$135
PnL
-$14.33
Record
50%
7813-7864 (15677)
balthazar<$100Invested
$49.85
Value
$50
PnL
-$24.86
Record
55%
25961-21246 (47207)
Invested
$39.96
Value
$40
PnL
+$0.04
Record
49%
9048-9543 (18591)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$30
PnL
-$4.97
Record
49%
7454-7779 (15233)
Invested
$19.93
Value
$20
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
12954-7737 (20691)
Invested
$10.62
Value
$13.04
PnL
-$4.1
Record
28%
5957-15587 (21544)
Invested
$6.99
Value
$7
PnL
-$7.1
Record
61%
13866-8714 (22580)
Invested
$200.35
Value
—
PnL
-$46.06
Record
72%
12202-4798 (17000)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$11.58
Record
49%
5502-5623 (11125)
LucerysInvested
$137.6
Value
—
PnL
-$22.38
Record
79%
10621-2765 (13386)
Invested
$6.12
Value
—
PnL
-$1.11
Record
35%
16955-31322 (48277)
Invested
$20.17
Value
—
PnL
-$3.34
Record
17%
1026-4959 (5985)
Invested
$20
Value
—
PnL
-$3.31
Record
30%
2189-5039 (7228)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0.01
Record
55%
5875-4772 (10647)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$2.6
Record
17%
402-1972 (2374)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.34
Value
—
PnL
-$0.34
Record
18%
4056-19002 (23058)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTRInvested
$312.37
Value
—
PnL
-$0.75
Record
51%
528-511 (1039)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
4-2 (6)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
qwen300.fund
No — $149.06
smallreceipt
No — $135
balthazar
No — $50
god83743894
No — $40
mildwindow27
No — $30
graynotebook19
No — $20
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271
No — $13.04
northdrawer
No — $7
e46m3
No — $0
0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033
No — $0