Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on October 31, 2026?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
No 92%
$1.3K
-$67.32
Smart Money Signal
16 of 24 top traders (67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 78.7¢ | $757.66 | $656.86 | +$202.6 | 50% 1220-1233 (2453) |
 balthazar | Noavg 88.6¢ | $178.26 | $201.29 | -$13.89 | 55% 25961-21246 (47207) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 98.3¢ | $164.15 | $164.23 | -$26.13 | 60% 7180-4743 (11923) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 81.6¢ | $141.78 | $145.41 | -$64.47 | 35% 16955-31322 (48277) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer | Noavg 96¢ | $135.66 | $50 | -$1.76 | 51% 528-511 (1039) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $29.35 | $30 | -$2.81 | 53% 8926-7971 (16897) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $25.8 | $30 | +$4.2 | 49% 9048-9543 (18591) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.6 | $20 | +$0.4 | 56% 18370-14706 (33076) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $19.56 | $20 | -$1.71 | 42% 5989-8172 (14161) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $37.31 | — | -$47.31 | 18% 4056-19002 (23058) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $20.68 | $13.05 | -$14.17 | 28% 5957-15587 (21544) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $9.4 | $10 | +$0 | 63% 12954-7737 (20691) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $20.07 | $0.01 | -$0.56 | 38% 187-299 (486) |
E4 e46m3 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $181.38 | — | -$29.63 | 72% 12202-4798 (17000) |
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | -$11.02 | 49% 5502-5623 (11125) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.8¢ | $169.36 | — | -$23.03 | 79% 10621-2765 (13386) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 88.4¢ | $55.83 | — | -$1.18 | 17% 1026-4959 (5985) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$12.74 | 61% 13866-8714 (22580) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $80.14 | — | -$9.69 | 30% 2189-5039 (7228) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $40 | — | -$12 | 56% 15516-12124 (27640) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 50% 7813-7864 (15677) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 55% 5875-4772 (10647) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$2.42 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
0X 0xd361529b833f79206cea905500ddb56574144ccdCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | — 4-2 (6) |
Invested
$757.66
Value
$656.86
PnL
+$202.6
Record
50%
1220-1233 (2453)
balthazarInvested
$178.26
Value
$201.29
PnL
-$13.89
Record
55%
25961-21246 (47207)
Invested
$164.15
Value
$164.23
PnL
-$26.13
Record
60%
7180-4743 (11923)
Invested
$141.78
Value
$145.41
PnL
-$64.47
Record
35%
16955-31322 (48277)
GenaTheBondKilIerInvested
$135.66
Value
$50
PnL
-$1.76
Record
51%
528-511 (1039)
Invested
$29.35
Value
$30
PnL
-$2.81
Record
53%
8926-7971 (16897)
Invested
$25.8
Value
$30
PnL
+$4.2
Record
49%
9048-9543 (18591)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.4
Record
56%
18370-14706 (33076)
Invested
$19.56
Value
$20
PnL
-$1.71
Record
42%
5989-8172 (14161)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$37.31
Value
—
PnL
-$47.31
Record
18%
4056-19002 (23058)
Invested
$20.68
Value
$13.05
PnL
-$14.17
Record
28%
5957-15587 (21544)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
12954-7737 (20691)
Invested
$20.07
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.56
Record
38%
187-299 (486)
Invested
$181.38
Value
—
PnL
-$29.63
Record
72%
12202-4798 (17000)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$11.02
Record
49%
5502-5623 (11125)
LucerysInvested
$169.36
Value
—
PnL
-$23.03
Record
79%
10621-2765 (13386)
Invested
$55.83
Value
—
PnL
-$1.18
Record
17%
1026-4959 (5985)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$12.74
Record
61%
13866-8714 (22580)
Invested
$80.14
Value
—
PnL
-$9.69
Record
30%
2189-5039 (7228)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$40
Value
—
PnL
-$12
Record
56%
15516-12124 (27640)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7813-7864 (15677)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
5875-4772 (10647)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$2.42
Record
17%
402-1972 (2374)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
4-2 (6)