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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Will the Ornn A100 Index be at least $1.50 on October 31, 2026?

Resolved No. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

21

No 91%

Total Value

$767.62

Combined PnL

-$233.85

Smart Money Signal

No

13 of 21 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders
Total Value$767.62
Total Shares768
Combined PnL-$164.64
Yes8 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares147
Combined PnL-$69.21
No — 62%Yes — 38%
QW
qwen300.fund
No

Invested

$165.23

Value

$166.9

PnL

-$27.74

Record

60%

7180-4743 (11923)

balthazar
No

Invested

$144.21

Value

$151.39

PnL

-$18.33

Record

55%

25961-21246 (47207)

CoinTrick
No

Invested

$144.76

Value

$144.9

PnL

+$0.14

Record

98%

3850-94 (3944)

XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100
No

Invested

$67.53

Value

$62.06

PnL

-$31.55

Record

35%

16955-31322 (48277)

SN
SnapElectionAvoider<$100
No

Invested

$56.87

Value

$61.04

PnL

-$6.16

Record

50%

1220-1233 (2453)

GR
graynotebook19<$100
No

Invested

$59.44

Value

$60

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

12954-7737 (20691)

GenaTheBondKilIer
No

Invested

$240.33

Value

$48.28

PnL

-$22.55

Record

51%

528-511 (1039)

SM
smallreceipt<$100
No

Invested

$39.52

Value

$40

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7813-7864 (15677)

MI
mildwindow27<$100
No

Invested

$19.74

Value

$20

PnL

-$4.83

Record

49%

7454-7779 (15233)

0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100
No

Invested

$20.16

Value

$13.05

PnL

-$13.64

Record

28%

5957-15587 (21544)

E4
e46m3CTR
Yes

Invested

$102.53

Value

—

PnL

-$42.19

Record

72%

12202-4798 (17000)

0X
0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$11.28

Record

49%

5502-5623 (11125)

Lucerys
No

Invested

$137.6

Value

—

PnL

-$22.44

Record

79%

10621-2765 (13386)

WA
WarriorHCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$20.17

Value

—

PnL

-$3.24

Record

17%

1026-4959 (5985)

NO
northdrawerCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$16.83

Record

61%

13866-8714 (22580)

SP
SpringlyFawlCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$20

Value

—

PnL

-$3.19

Record

30%

2189-5039 (7228)

QU
quietparcel
No

Invested

$232

Value

—

PnL

-$6.28

Record

53%

8926-7971 (16897)

0X
0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

5875-4772 (10647)

IstarothCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$2.6

Record

17%

402-1972 (2374)

2B9SCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

—

PnL

-$1.15

Record

18%

4056-19002 (23058)

0X
0xd361529b833f79206cea905500ddb56574144ccdCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

—

4-2 (6)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0xd9dcec20...c45a46
Slug
will-the-ornn-a100-index-be-at-least-1pt50-on-october-31-2026-20260811191114217

Traders in this Market

QW

qwen300.fund

No — $166.9

-$27.74

balthazar

No — $151.39

-$18.33

CoinTrick

No — $144.9

+$0.14
XT

xtxpleasecallme

No — $62.06

-$31.55
SN

SnapElectionAvoider

No — $61.04

-$6.16
GR

graynotebook19

No — $60

+$0

GenaTheBondKilIer

No — $48.28

-$22.55
SM

smallreceipt

No — $40

+$0
MI

mildwindow27

No — $20

-$4.83
0X

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

No — $13.05

-$13.64
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