Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 45¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes45¢No55¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$183.43

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 45¢

-29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$876.5

Total Shares1,416

Combined PnL+$201.52

Yes5 traders

Total Value$588.38

Total Shares1,540

Combined PnL-$384.94

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

77h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 33.5¢	$147.29	$272.46	+$128.67	48% 1350-1485 (2835)
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 60.9¢	$401.55	$253.83	-$147.72	70% 1180-497 (1677)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	Yesavg 68.5¢	$411	$228	-$189	53% 790-692 (1482)
G.Hchen	Noavg 43.8¢	$131.69	$184.94	+$53.24	56% 371-291 (662)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 39¢	$97.27	$160.44	+$63.16	34% 19138-36780 (55918)
balthazar	Noavg 51.6¢	$103.18	$124	-$57.8	52% 30789-28932 (59721)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl	Noavg 50.3¢	$98.1	$120.9	+$22.8	32% 8-17 (25)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 55.5¢	$158.15	$99.9	-$45.45	45% 2962-3655 (6617)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	Noavg 43.6¢	$40.99	$13.77	-$8.56	50% 290-285 (575)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 62.8¢	$6.75	$4.09	-$2.67	77% 12683-3868 (16551)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$44.76	$2.56	-$0.12	40% 6508-9755 (16263)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$147.29

Value

$272.46

PnL

+$128.67

Record

48%

1350-1485 (2835)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$401.55

Value

$253.83

PnL

-$147.72

Record

70%

1180-497 (1677)

SitsToPeeCTR

Yes

Invested

$411

Value

$228

PnL

-$189

Record

53%

790-692 (1482)

G.Hchen

Invested

$131.69

Value

$184.94

PnL

+$53.24

Record

56%

371-291 (662)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$97.27

Value

$160.44

PnL

+$63.16

Record

34%

19138-36780 (55918)

balthazar

Invested

$103.18

Value

$124

PnL

-$57.8

Record

52%

30789-28932 (59721)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl

Invested

$98.1

Value

$120.9

PnL

+$22.8

Record

32%

8-17 (25)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$158.15

Value

$99.9

PnL

-$45.45

Record

45%

2962-3655 (6617)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

Invested

$40.99

Value

$13.77

PnL

-$8.56

Record

50%

290-285 (575)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.75

Value

$4.09

PnL

-$2.67

Record

77%

12683-3868 (16551)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.76

Value

$2.56

PnL

-$0.12

Record

40%

6508-9755 (16263)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

77h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.0%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$112.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

212.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.