Will The Odyssey win Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $132 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$132.49
$2.55
95¢ → 96¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $89.93 | $92.63 | +$2.7 | 35% 2848-5314 (8162) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $29.1 | $29.1 | -$0 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $4.9 | $4.9 | -$0 | 35% 138-259 (397) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $4.85 | +$0 | 38% 1190-1979 (3169) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.8 | $0.8 | +$0 | — 3-6 (9) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $0.35 | $0.2 | -$0.15 | 40% 2992-4404 (7396) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$89.93
Value
$92.63
PnL
+$2.7
Record
35%
2848-5314 (8162)
Invested
$29.1
Value
$29.1
PnL
-$0
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
138-259 (397)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1190-1979 (3169)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.8
PnL
+$0
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$0.35
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$0.15
Record
40%
2992-4404 (7396)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.