Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 55¢ · $920 held · ends Nov 6

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$919.64

Combined PnL

$1.65

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 54.5¢

-5% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$774.24

Total Shares1,351

Combined PnL-$13.98

Yes2 traders

Total Value$145.4

Total Shares330

Combined PnL+$15.63

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

575h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Noavg 57.4¢	$1.1K	$622.11	-$15.6	51% 290-283 (573)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$97.77	$110.2	+$12.43	35% 18775-34811 (53586)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 56¢	$1.4K	$78.04	-$0.03	45% 2910-3559 (6469)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$32	$35.2	+$3.2	53% 8421-7496 (15917)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 58¢	$20.2	$20.1	-$0.1	14% 508-3080 (3588)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 56¢	$16.58	$16.58	+$0	44% 6591-8244 (14835)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 64¢	$11.47	$15.08	+$3.61	27% 6994-19119 (26113)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 64¢	$14.72	$12.88	-$1.84	31% 3549-7932 (11481)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 60¢	$5.15	$5.03	-$0.12	18% 4425-20750 (25175)
SP SpringlyFawl<$100	Noavg 61¢	$2.67	$2.47	-$0.2	30% 2495-5935 (8430)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 59¢	$3.6	$1.39	+$0.33	25% 1751-5368 (7119)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 58¢	$0.58	$0.56	-$0.02	49% 8976-9501 (18477)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Invested

$1,110.92

Value

$622.11

PnL

-$15.6

Record

51%

290-283 (573)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$97.77

Value

$110.2

PnL

+$12.43

Record

35%

18775-34811 (53586)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$1,448.24

Value

$78.04

PnL

-$0.03

Record

45%

2910-3559 (6469)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32

Value

$35.2

PnL

+$3.2

Record

53%

8421-7496 (15917)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

14%

508-3080 (3588)

korda77<$100

Invested

$16.58

Value

$16.58

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

6591-8244 (14835)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$11.47

Value

$15.08

PnL

+$3.61

Record

27%

6994-19119 (26113)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$14.72

Value

$12.88

PnL

-$1.84

Record

31%

3549-7932 (11481)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$0.12

Record

18%

4425-20750 (25175)

SpringlyFawl<$100

Invested

$2.67

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$0.2

Record

30%

2495-5935 (8430)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$0.33

Record

25%

1751-5368 (7119)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

8976-9501 (18477)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

575h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.