Will the November 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $169 held · ends Dec 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$168.51
$1.62
98.1¢ → 99.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 45%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $39.9 | $41.92 | +$2.02 | 63% 1314-788 (2102) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $33.16 | $33.63 | +$0.47 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.88 | $29.94 | +$0.06 | 40% 1433-2157 (3590) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $19.86 | $19.96 | +$0.1 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.79 | $19.96 | +$0.17 | 21% 75-278 (353) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $12.67 | $12.77 | +$0.1 | 39% 1250-1994 (3244) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $9.98 | $9.98 | +$0 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $1.5 | $0.21 | -$1.29 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.14 | $0.14 | -$0 | 50% 23-23 (46) |
Invested
$39.9
Value
$41.92
PnL
+$2.02
Record
63%
1314-788 (2102)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$33.16
Value
$33.63
PnL
+$0.47
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$29.88
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0.06
Record
40%
1433-2157 (3590)
Invested
$19.86
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
Invested
$19.79
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.17
Record
21%
75-278 (353)
Invested
$12.67
Value
$12.77
PnL
+$0.1
Record
39%
1250-1994 (3244)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$9.98
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$1.29
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
23-23 (46)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.