Will the November 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $237 held · ends Dec 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$237.37
$0.74
99.2¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $124.75 | $124.75 | +$0 | 25% 842-2482 (3324) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $40.95 | $41.92 | +$0.97 | 63% 1314-788 (2102) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $33.27 | $33.63 | +$0.36 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $27.05 | $27.05 | +$0 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $9.98 | $9.98 | +$0 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.63 | $0.04 | -$0.59 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
Invested
$124.75
Value
$124.75
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
842-2482 (3324)
Invested
$40.95
Value
$41.92
PnL
+$0.97
Record
63%
1314-788 (2102)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$33.27
Value
$33.63
PnL
+$0.36
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$27.05
Value
$27.05
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$9.98
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$0.63
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.59
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.