Will the November 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 90¢ · $257 held · ends Dec 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 91%
$257.36
-$21.1
93.3¢ → 90¢
-3% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-9 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 38%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $70.5 | $62.63 | -$7.88 | 29% 862-2136 (2998) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $33.44 | $35.15 | +$1.71 | 63% 1313-787 (2100) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $31.14 | $28.14 | -$3 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $31.2 | $27.47 | -$3.73 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $28.2 | $25.05 | -$3.15 | 20% 69-276 (345) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $18.46 | $16.7 | -$1.76 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $18.6 | $16.7 | -$1.9 | 40% 1429-2156 (3585) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $18.8 | $16.7 | -$2.1 | 53% 5512-4919 (10431) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $11.9 | $10.69 | -$1.22 | 38% 1236-1990 (3226) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $6.71 | $9.79 | +$3.08 | 41% 3084-4451 (7535) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $9.5 | $8.35 | -$1.15 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
Invested
$70.5
Value
$62.63
PnL
-$7.88
Record
29%
862-2136 (2998)
Invested
$33.44
Value
$35.15
PnL
+$1.71
Record
63%
1313-787 (2100)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$31.14
Value
$28.14
PnL
-$3
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
balthazar<$100Invested
$31.2
Value
$27.47
PnL
-$3.73
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$25.05
PnL
-$3.15
Record
20%
69-276 (345)
Invested
$18.46
Value
$16.7
PnL
-$1.76
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$16.7
PnL
-$1.9
Record
40%
1429-2156 (3585)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$16.7
PnL
-$2.1
Record
53%
5512-4919 (10431)
Invested
$11.9
Value
$10.69
PnL
-$1.22
Record
38%
1236-1990 (3226)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$9.79
PnL
+$3.08
Record
41%
3084-4451 (7535)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$8.35
PnL
-$1.15
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.