Will the November 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 56¢ · $200 held · ends Dec 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$200.37
-$25.36
69.3¢ → 55.5¢
-20% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 38%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $54 | $45.75 | -$8.25 | 40% 1429-2156 (3585) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 59.5¢ | $30.6 | $32.2 | +$1.6 | 41% 3084-4451 (7535) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 70.4¢ | $35.2 | $30.5 | -$4.7 | 29% 862-2136 (2998) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $22.92 | $20.56 | -$2.36 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $19.51 | $16.53 | -$2.98 | 79% 286-77 (363) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 72.4¢ | $19.6 | $16.52 | -$3.08 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $13.6 | $12.2 | -$1.4 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $14.4 | $12.2 | -$2.2 | 53% 5512-4919 (10431) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $8.7 | $7.81 | -$0.9 | 38% 1236-1990 (3226) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $7.2 | $6.1 | -$1.1 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
Invested
$54
Value
$45.75
PnL
-$8.25
Record
40%
1429-2156 (3585)
Invested
$30.6
Value
$32.2
PnL
+$1.6
Record
41%
3084-4451 (7535)
Invested
$35.2
Value
$30.5
PnL
-$4.7
Record
29%
862-2136 (2998)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$22.92
Value
$20.56
PnL
-$2.36
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$19.51
Value
$16.53
PnL
-$2.98
Record
79%
286-77 (363)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.6
Value
$16.52
PnL
-$3.08
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$13.6
Value
$12.2
PnL
-$1.4
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$12.2
PnL
-$2.2
Record
53%
5512-4919 (10431)
Invested
$8.7
Value
$7.81
PnL
-$0.9
Record
38%
1236-1990 (3226)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$6.1
PnL
-$1.1
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.