Will the November 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 59¢ · $346 held · ends Dec 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 100%
$346.22
-$4.64
58.8¢ → 58.5¢
+0% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 12 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
12 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 69.2¢ | $149.83 | $125.84 | -$23.99 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 51.3¢ | $69.3 | $78.3 | +$9 | 12% 49-371 (420) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $28.2 | $34.8 | +$6.6 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.2 | — 1-18 (19) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $21.22 | $19.55 | -$1.67 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $13.28 | $15.72 | +$2.44 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $10 | $11.6 | +$1.6 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $12.2 | $11.6 | -$0.6 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $7.69 | $8.57 | +$0.89 | 63% 1314-788 (2102) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $7.68 | $7.42 | -$0.26 | 39% 1250-1994 (3244) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $73.2 | $7.02 | +$0.66 | 50% 23-23 (46) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $5.8 | +$0.9 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
Invested
$149.83
Value
$125.84
PnL
-$23.99
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Invested
$69.3
Value
$78.3
PnL
+$9
Record
12%
49-371 (420)
balthazar<$100Invested
$28.2
Value
$34.8
PnL
+$6.6
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.2
Record
—
1-18 (19)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$21.22
Value
$19.55
PnL
-$1.67
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$13.28
Value
$15.72
PnL
+$2.44
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
Invested
$10
Value
$11.6
PnL
+$1.6
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
Invested
$12.2
Value
$11.6
PnL
-$0.6
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Invested
$7.69
Value
$8.57
PnL
+$0.89
Record
63%
1314-788 (2102)
Invested
$7.68
Value
$7.42
PnL
-$0.26
Record
39%
1250-1994 (3244)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$73.2
Value
$7.02
PnL
+$0.66
Record
50%
23-23 (46)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5.8
PnL
+$0.9
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
xtxpleasecallme
No — $125.84
smallreceipt
No — $78.3
balthazar
No — $34.8
0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F
No — $20
Lucerys
No — $19.55
luciebot
No — $15.72
cigarettes
No — $11.6
SulkingCrypto
No — $11.6
shiifoo
No — $8.57
anothercoin
No — $7.42