Will the November 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 82¢ · $213 held · ends Dec 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$212.71
$11.73
83.6¢ → 81.5¢
-2% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 45%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $63.75 | $66.38 | +$2.63 | 20% 69-276 (345) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 80.6¢ | $26.15 | $28.72 | +$2.57 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $23.04 | $23.98 | +$0.95 | 79% 286-77 (363) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $18.53 | $18.59 | +$0.05 | 63% 1313-787 (2100) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $16 | $17.7 | +$1.7 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $16 | $17.7 | +$1.7 | 11% 42-326 (368) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $17 | $17.7 | +$0.7 | 53% 5512-4919 (10431) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $10.24 | $11.33 | +$1.09 | 38% 1236-1990 (3226) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $8.5 | $8.85 | +$0.35 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $1.76 | $1.76 | +$0 | 41% 3084-4451 (7535) |
Invested
$63.75
Value
$66.38
PnL
+$2.63
Record
20%
69-276 (345)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$26.15
Value
$28.72
PnL
+$2.57
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$23.04
Value
$23.98
PnL
+$0.95
Record
79%
286-77 (363)
Invested
$18.53
Value
$18.59
PnL
+$0.05
Record
63%
1313-787 (2100)
Invested
$16
Value
$17.7
PnL
+$1.7
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Invested
$16
Value
$17.7
PnL
+$1.7
Record
11%
42-326 (368)
Invested
$17
Value
$17.7
PnL
+$0.7
Record
53%
5512-4919 (10431)
Invested
$10.24
Value
$11.33
PnL
+$1.09
Record
38%
1236-1990 (3226)
Invested
$8.5
Value
$8.85
PnL
+$0.35
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$1.76
Value
$1.76
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
3084-4451 (7535)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.