Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the United States by December 31, 2027?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 98¢ · $850 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$850.24

Combined PnL

$370.22

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 97.8¢

+29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$832.45

Total Shares836

Combined PnL+$503.7

Yes3 traders

Total Value$17.78

Total Shares846

Combined PnL-$133.47

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

432h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 82¢	$509.23	$495.02	+$88.96	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 39.3¢	$305.07	$170.77	+$413.12	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$59.28	$58.68	-$0.6	61% 15895-10161 (26056)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$35.84	$36.56	+$0.71	46% 10278-11960 (22238)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 93.8¢	$246.18	$29.65	+$2.67	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 85.8¢	$25.52	$23.99	-$1.53	18% 4276-20026 (24302)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 97¢	$17.47	$17.78	+$0.37	31% 3445-7743 (11188)
StarMasterCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$10	$8.05	-$1.95	53% 1899-1680 (3579)
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$169.55	$7.73	-$114.62	50% 1008-1023 (2031)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.9¢	$18.9	$2	-$16.9	65% 594-319 (913)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$509.23

Value

$495.02

PnL

+$88.96

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$305.07

Value

$170.77

PnL

+$413.12

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$59.28

Value

$58.68

PnL

-$0.6

Record

61%

15895-10161 (26056)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$35.84

Value

$36.56

PnL

+$0.71

Record

46%

10278-11960 (22238)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$246.18

Value

$29.65

PnL

+$2.67

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$25.52

Value

$23.99

PnL

-$1.53

Record

18%

4276-20026 (24302)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$17.47

Value

$17.78

PnL

+$0.37

Record

31%

3445-7743 (11188)

StarMasterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$8.05

PnL

-$1.95

Record

53%

1899-1680 (3579)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$169.55

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$114.62

Record

50%

1008-1023 (2031)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.9

Value

PnL

-$16.9

Record

65%

594-319 (913)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

432h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.