Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2027?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $666 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$665.58

Combined PnL

$116.81

Smart Money Entry

90.7¢ → 97.8¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$545.88

Total Shares586

Combined PnL+$79.56

Yes4 traders

Total Value$119.71

Total Shares1,735

Combined PnL+$37.25

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

322h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 97.6¢	$608.81	$468.94	-$17.96	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 14.3¢	$118.56	$57.27	-$97.39	50% 1004-1019 (2023)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 7.6¢	$9.95	$42.49	+$99.18	62% 14630-9158 (23788)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.8¢	$277.36	$27.93	-$1.6	43% 3100-4146 (7246)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$30.93	$26.07	-$4.86	18% 4236-19937 (24173)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$19.08	$19.74	+$128.43	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$5.55	$16.63	+$11.08	56% 18179-14063 (32242)
Dr.mett<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$6.86	$6.51	-$0.06	86% 1448-235 (1683)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$608.81

Value

$468.94

PnL

-$17.96

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$118.56

Value

$57.27

PnL

-$97.39

Record

50%

1004-1019 (2023)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.95

Value

$42.49

PnL

+$99.18

Record

62%

14630-9158 (23788)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$277.36

Value

$27.93

PnL

-$1.6

Record

43%

3100-4146 (7246)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.93

Value

$26.07

PnL

-$4.86

Record

18%

4236-19937 (24173)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.08

Value

$19.74

PnL

+$128.43

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.55

Value

$16.63

PnL

+$11.08

Record

56%

18179-14063 (32242)

Dr.mett<$100

Invested

$6.86

Value

$6.51

PnL

-$0.06

Record

86%

1448-235 (1683)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

322h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.