Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Slovakia by December 31, 2027?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $39 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$38.88
-$4.43
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.97 | -$0.01 | 59% 11831-8157 (19988) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $17.98 | $17.97 | +$0.01 | 31% 3472-7762 (11234) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $4 | $0.54 | -$3.47 | 35% 18146-33983 (52129) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.08 | $0.24 | +$0.16 | 72% 13948-5333 (19281) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.23 | $0.12 | -$0.12 | 18% 4279-20045 (24324) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.05 | $0.05 | -$1 | 61% 14862-9318 (24180) |
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
59%
11831-8157 (19988)
Invested
$17.98
Value
$17.97
PnL
+$0.01
Record
31%
3472-7762 (11234)
Invested
$4
Value
$0.54
PnL
-$3.47
Record
35%
18146-33983 (52129)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.24
PnL
+$0.16
Record
72%
13948-5333 (19281)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$0.12
Record
18%
4279-20045 (24324)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$1
Record
61%
14862-9318 (24180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.