Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) be released on November 29, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.8K
$21.46
98.6¢ → 99.7¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 98.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$14.83 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
DO donthackme | Noavg 99.8¢ | $291 | $291.29 | +$0.29 | 75% 27-9 (36) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.9¢ | $208.59 | $208.13 | -$0.46 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 95.4¢ | $176.58 | $184.35 | +$7.77 | 12% 49-371 (420) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $42.91 | $42.85 | -$0.06 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $1.46 | $0.53 | -$0.92 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
balthazarInvested
$1,069.93
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$14.83
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Invested
$291
Value
$291.29
PnL
+$0.29
Record
75%
27-9 (36)
Invested
$208.59
Value
$208.13
PnL
-$0.46
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$176.58
Value
$184.35
PnL
+$7.77
Record
12%
49-371 (420)
Invested
$42.91
Value
$42.85
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$0.53
PnL
-$0.92
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.