Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) be released on November 24, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.2K
$4.01
99.5¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.8¢ | $499 | $499.5 | +$0.5 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
DO donthackme | Noavg 99.9¢ | $291.29 | $291.33 | +$0.04 | 75% 27-9 (36) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.9¢ | $208.65 | $208.65 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 97.4¢ | $180.23 | $184.82 | +$4.59 | 12% 52-372 (424) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.98 | $20.98 | +$0 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.21 | $0.09 | -$1.12 | 41% 3094-4459 (7553) |
balthazarInvested
$499
Value
$499.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$291.29
Value
$291.33
PnL
+$0.04
Record
75%
27-9 (36)
Invested
$208.65
Value
$208.65
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$180.23
Value
$184.82
PnL
+$4.59
Record
12%
52-372 (424)
Invested
$20.98
Value
$20.98
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Invested
$1.21
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$1.12
Record
41%
3094-4459 (7553)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.