Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) be released on November 22, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $841 held · ends Nov 23
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$841.32
$1.2
99.6¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.8¢ | $499 | $499.5 | +$0.5 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
DO donthackme | Noavg 99.9¢ | $186.9 | $186.91 | +$0.01 | 75% 27-9 (36) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 99.1¢ | $123.87 | $124.88 | +$1 | 27% 917-2511 (3428) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $29.19 | $29.97 | +$0.78 | 12% 49-371 (420) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $1.16 | $0.07 | -$1.09 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
balthazarInvested
$499
Value
$499.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Invested
$186.9
Value
$186.91
PnL
+$0.01
Record
75%
27-9 (36)
Invested
$123.87
Value
$124.88
PnL
+$1
Record
27%
917-2511 (3428)
Invested
$29.19
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.78
Record
12%
49-371 (420)
Invested
$1.16
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$1.09
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.