Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) be released on November 21, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $753 held · ends Nov 22
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$752.61
$0.86
99.5¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $551.75 | $552.81 | +$1.06 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 99.5¢ | $154.29 | $154.85 | +$0.56 | 12% 52-372 (424) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.98 | $20.97 | -$0.01 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $12.75 | $13.94 | +$1.19 | 48% 23-25 (48) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.99 | -$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $2 | $0.07 | -$1.93 | 41% 3094-4459 (7553) |
balthazarInvested
$551.75
Value
$552.81
PnL
+$1.06
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$154.29
Value
$154.85
PnL
+$0.56
Record
12%
52-372 (424)
Invested
$20.98
Value
$20.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$12.75
Value
$13.94
PnL
+$1.19
Record
48%
23-25 (48)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.99
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$2
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$1.93
Record
41%
3094-4459 (7553)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.