Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) be released on November 19, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $372 held · ends Nov 20
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$371.53
$6.14
97.8¢ → 99.9¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel | Noavg 99¢ | $123.75 | $124.88 | +$1.13 | 20% 61-241 (302) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $88.74 | $88.77 | +$0.04 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $64.35 | $64.94 | +$0.58 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $42.7 | $42.96 | +$0.26 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $29.65 | $29.97 | +$0.32 | 22% 78-279 (357) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $16.2 | $20.02 | +$3.82 | 41% 3094-4459 (7553) |
Invested
$123.75
Value
$124.88
PnL
+$1.13
Record
20%
61-241 (302)
Invested
$88.74
Value
$88.77
PnL
+$0.04
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
balthazar<$100Invested
$64.35
Value
$64.94
PnL
+$0.58
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$42.7
Value
$42.96
PnL
+$0.26
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
Invested
$29.65
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.32
Record
22%
78-279 (357)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$20.02
PnL
+$3.82
Record
41%
3094-4459 (7553)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.