Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) be released on November 18, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $446 held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$446.29
$18.91
95.8¢ → 99.6¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.8¢ | $208.42 | $205.62 | -$2.8 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $78.8 | $77.78 | -$1.02 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $65.27 | $74.84 | +$9.57 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $51.53 | $59.88 | +$8.35 | 12% 49-371 (420) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $20.96 | $20.67 | -$0.28 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $2.4 | $7.5 | +$5.1 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
Invested
$208.42
Value
$205.62
PnL
-$2.8
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$78.8
Value
$77.78
PnL
-$1.02
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
balthazar<$100Invested
$65.27
Value
$74.84
PnL
+$9.57
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Invested
$51.53
Value
$59.88
PnL
+$8.35
Record
12%
49-371 (420)
Invested
$20.96
Value
$20.67
PnL
-$0.28
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$7.5
PnL
+$5.1
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.