Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) be released on November 14, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $324 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$323.54
$17.21
94.5¢ → 99.6¢
+5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 99¢ | $123.75 | $124.88 | +$1.13 | 25% 845-2482 (3327) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $75.24 | $75.92 | +$0.68 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $26.91 | $42 | +$15.09 | 41% 3094-4459 (7553) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $29.49 | $29.97 | +$0.48 | 40% 1439-2157 (3596) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.87 | -$0.1 | 14% 55-329 (384) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.98 | $20.91 | -$0.07 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
Invested
$123.75
Value
$124.88
PnL
+$1.13
Record
25%
845-2482 (3327)
balthazar<$100Invested
$75.24
Value
$75.92
PnL
+$0.68
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$26.91
Value
$42
PnL
+$15.09
Record
41%
3094-4459 (7553)
Invested
$29.49
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.48
Record
40%
1439-2157 (3596)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.87
PnL
-$0.1
Record
14%
55-329 (384)
Invested
$20.98
Value
$20.91
PnL
-$0.07
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.