Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) be released on November 13, 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $369 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$369.08
$0.08
99.6¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.8¢ | $198.51 | $198.06 | -$0.45 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $78.84 | $78.68 | -$0.16 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $29.4 | $29.95 | +$0.55 | 12% 49-371 (420) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.88 | +$0.18 | 25% 842-2482 (3324) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $20.96 | $20.92 | -$0.04 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $10.79 | $10.88 | +$0.09 | 21% 75-278 (353) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.6 | $0.42 | -$0.18 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.2 | $0.28 | +$0.08 | 50% 23-23 (46) |
Invested
$198.51
Value
$198.06
PnL
-$0.45
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$78.84
Value
$78.68
PnL
-$0.16
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$29.95
PnL
+$0.55
Record
12%
49-371 (420)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.88
PnL
+$0.18
Record
25%
842-2482 (3324)
Invested
$20.96
Value
$20.92
PnL
-$0.04
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
Invested
$10.79
Value
$10.88
PnL
+$0.09
Record
21%
75-278 (353)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.42
PnL
-$0.18
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.28
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
23-23 (46)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.