Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) be released on November 11, 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $743 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$742.74
$0.58
99.6¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO donthackme | Noavg 99.8¢ | $291 | $291.32 | +$0.32 | 75% 27-9 (36) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.9¢ | $208.65 | $208.23 | -$0.42 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 99.9¢ | $154.79 | $154.53 | -$0.26 | 12% 52-372 (424) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $35.84 | $37.69 | +$1.86 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.83 | $29.97 | +$0.14 | 14% 55-329 (384) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.98 | $20.94 | -$0.04 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $1.07 | $0.06 | -$1.01 | 41% 3094-4459 (7553) |
Invested
$291
Value
$291.32
PnL
+$0.32
Record
75%
27-9 (36)
Invested
$208.65
Value
$208.23
PnL
-$0.42
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$154.79
Value
$154.53
PnL
-$0.26
Record
12%
52-372 (424)
balthazar<$100Invested
$35.84
Value
$37.69
PnL
+$1.86
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$29.83
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.14
Record
14%
55-329 (384)
Invested
$20.98
Value
$20.94
PnL
-$0.04
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$1.01
Record
41%
3094-4459 (7553)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.