Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) be released on November 10, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 1.3¢ · $14 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 100%
$14.25
-$117.12
13.4¢ → 1.3¢
-91% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.1¢ | $2.4 | $4.39 | +$1.99 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 31.8¢ | $58.77 | $3.89 | -$54.89 | 12% 49-371 (420) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 1¢ | $3.63 | $2.91 | -$0.73 | 75% 27-9 (36) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.4¢ | $1.1 | $1.66 | +$0.56 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 58.5¢ | $45.21 | $0.62 | -$44.59 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.5¢ | $0.32 | $0.44 | +$0.13 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.3¢ | $19.95 | $0.36 | -$19.59 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
Invested
$2.4
Value
$4.39
PnL
+$1.99
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$58.77
Value
$3.89
PnL
-$54.89
Record
12%
49-371 (420)
Invested
$3.63
Value
$2.91
PnL
-$0.73
Record
75%
27-9 (36)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.66
PnL
+$0.56
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
Invested
$45.21
Value
$0.62
PnL
-$44.59
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Invested
$0.32
Value
$0.44
PnL
+$0.13
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$19.95
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$19.59
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.