Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on November 26, 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 24¢ · $62 held · ends Nov 27
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$62.14
$47.52
Research grade
AvoidYes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.1¢ | $7.36 | $35.09 | +$27.73 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $4.01 | $14.71 | +$10.7 | 22% 1839-6343 (8182) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $2.91 | $9.92 | +$7.01 | 16% 408-2125 (2533) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $0.34 | $2.42 | +$2.08 | 19% 2981-12794 (15775) |
Invested
$7.36
Value
$35.09
PnL
+$27.73
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
Invested
$4.01
Value
$14.71
PnL
+$10.7
Record
22%
1839-6343 (8182)
Invested
$2.91
Value
$9.92
PnL
+$7.01
Record
16%
408-2125 (2533)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.34
Value
$2.42
PnL
+$2.08
Record
19%
2981-12794 (15775)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.