Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next governing coalition of Israel consist of Likud + Yashar + Together + YB + Shas + UTJ?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $82 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 78%
$82.17
-$33.55
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $74.93 | $74.89 | -$0.04 | 30% 993-2362 (3355) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $143.35 | $6.4 | -$6.37 | 36% 3652-6517 (10169) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $12.03 | $0.4 | -$11.63 | 52% 1630-1499 (3129) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $8.18 | $0.27 | -$7.91 | 45% 4975-6198 (11173) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $2.27 | $0.07 | -$2.19 | 29% 3101-7566 (10667) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $1.59 | $0.05 | -$1.54 | 13% 65-441 (506) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $28.48 | $0.04 | -$2.48 | 42% 2607-3596 (6203) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $1.03 | $0.03 | -$1 | 39% 3489-5413 (8902) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $0.41 | $0.01 | -$0.4 | 29% 1063-2631 (3694) |
Invested
$74.93
Value
$74.89
PnL
-$0.04
Record
30%
993-2362 (3355)
LucerysInvested
$143.35
Value
$6.4
PnL
-$6.37
Record
36%
3652-6517 (10169)
Invested
$12.03
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$11.63
Record
52%
1630-1499 (3129)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$8.18
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$7.91
Record
45%
4975-6198 (11173)
Invested
$2.27
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$2.19
Record
29%
3101-7566 (10667)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.59
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$1.54
Record
13%
65-441 (506)
Invested
$28.48
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$2.48
Record
42%
2607-3596 (6203)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1
Record
39%
3489-5413 (8902)
Invested
$0.41
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.4
Record
29%
1063-2631 (3694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.