Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next governing coalition of Israel consist of Likud + Yashar + Shas + UTJ + RZP?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $23 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 89%
$23.09
-$32.45
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Mature
48h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $22.8 | $22.86 | +$0.06 | 24% 39-122 (161) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $8.18 | $0.09 | -$8.09 | 43% 5134-6831 (11965) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $3.86 | $0.04 | -$3.82 | 28% 1057-2761 (3818) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $3.8 | $0.04 | -$3.76 | 39% 3708-5917 (9625) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $31.82 | $0.02 | -$3.14 | 42% 2644-3715 (6359) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $1.59 | $0.02 | -$1.57 | 14% 93-569 (662) |
BI BiggggggggCTR | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $237.89 | $0.01 | -$11.69 | 51% 1645-1556 (3201) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $0.41 | $0 | -$0.4 | 30% 1138-2687 (3825) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.03 | $0 | -$0.03 | 38% 289-472 (761) |
Invested
$22.8
Value
$22.86
PnL
+$0.06
Record
24%
39-122 (161)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$8.18
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$8.09
Record
43%
5134-6831 (11965)
Invested
$3.86
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$3.82
Record
28%
1057-2761 (3818)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$3.76
Record
39%
3708-5917 (9625)
Invested
$31.82
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.14
Record
42%
2644-3715 (6359)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.59
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.57
Record
14%
93-569 (662)
Invested
$237.89
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$11.69
Record
51%
1645-1556 (3201)
Invested
$0.41
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.4
Record
30%
1138-2687 (3825)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.03
Record
38%
289-472 (761)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.