Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the next governing coalition of Israel consist of Likud + Shas + UTJ + Otzma + RZP + Yashar?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $115 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$114.6

Combined PnL

-$30.34

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$112.43

Total Shares112

Combined PnL-$7.27

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.17

Total Shares543

Combined PnL-$23.07

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$74.93	$74.93	+$0	31% 139-308 (447)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$32	$31.06	-$0.94	40% 3401-5040 (8441)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.9¢	$137.17	$6.45	-$6.33	36% 3547-6225 (9772)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$12.03	$1.06	-$10.97	52% 1620-1496 (3116)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$8.18	$0.72	-$7.46	46% 4900-5790 (10690)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$2.27	$0.2	-$2.07	29% 3020-7228 (10248)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$1.59	$0.14	-$1.45	13% 54-364 (418)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$13.61	$0.05	-$1.12	43% 2594-3441 (6035)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$74.93

Value

$74.93

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

139-308 (447)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$32

Value

$31.06

PnL

-$0.94

Record

40%

3401-5040 (8441)

Lucerys

Invested

$137.17

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$6.33

Record

36%

3547-6225 (9772)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.03

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$10.97

Record

52%

1620-1496 (3116)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.18

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$7.46

Record

46%

4900-5790 (10690)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$2.07

Record

29%

3020-7228 (10248)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.59

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$1.45

Record

13%

54-364 (418)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.61

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.12

Record

43%

2594-3441 (6035)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9423.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

9523.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.