Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the next governing coalition of Israel consist of Likud + Shas + UTJ + Otzma + RZP + YB?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $39 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$38.55

Combined PnL

-$40.63

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$37.51

Total Shares37

Combined PnL-$10.05

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.04

Total Shares696

Combined PnL-$30.58

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$34.77	$31.08	-$3.69	39% 3708-5917 (9625)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.9¢	$125.03	$6.43	-$6.36	35% 3830-6996 (10826)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$12.03	$0.4	-$11.63	51% 1645-1556 (3201)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$8.18	$0.27	-$7.91	43% 5134-6831 (11965)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$3.86	$0.13	-$3.74	28% 1057-2761 (3818)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$3.28	$0.11	-$3.17	42% 2644-3715 (6359)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$2.27	$0.07	-$2.19	28% 3241-8219 (11460)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$1.59	$0.05	-$1.54	14% 93-569 (662)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.41	$0.01	-$0.4	30% 1138-2687 (3825)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$34.77

Value

$31.08

PnL

-$3.69

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

Lucerys

Invested

$125.03

Value

$6.43

PnL

-$6.36

Record

35%

3830-6996 (10826)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.03

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$11.63

Record

51%

1645-1556 (3201)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.18

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$7.91

Record

43%

5134-6831 (11965)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.86

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$3.74

Record

28%

1057-2761 (3818)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.28

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$3.17

Record

42%

2644-3715 (6359)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.19

Record

28%

3241-8219 (11460)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.59

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.54

Record

14%

93-569 (662)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.4

Record

30%

1138-2687 (3825)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9423.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

9523.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.