Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 16, 2026?

3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 23¢ · $51 held · ends Nov 17

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$50.86

Combined PnL

$39.59

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$50.71

Total Shares221

Combined PnL+$39.59

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$8.01	$37.55	+$29.55	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$1.29	$8.33	+$7.04	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.5	$4.82	+$3	27% 659-1763 (2422)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.01

Value

$37.55

PnL

+$29.55

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.29

Value

$8.33

PnL

+$7.04

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$3

Record

27%

659-1763 (2422)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.9%

22.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$302.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

402.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.