Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + V?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 92¢ · $497 held · ends Aug 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$497.05
-$92.04
95.9¢ → 92.2¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-6 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Mature
38h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 91.9¢ | $409.42 | $206.98 | -$89.45 | 34% 19214-36845 (56059) |
DO donthackme | Noavg 98.8¢ | $128.18 | $122.42 | -$5.75 | 68% 13194-6212 (19406) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $47.43 | $83 | -$1.3 | 53% 23594-20788 (44382) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99¢ | $225.39 | $73.22 | -$3.63 | 72% 13841-5375 (19216) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $5.48 | $9.06 | +$3.58 | 17% 4496-22009 (26505) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.9¢ | $8.01 | $1.3 | -$6.71 | 37% 3298-5675 (8973) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $22.54 | $1.07 | +$11.22 | 40% 6536-9791 (16327) |
Invested
$409.42
Value
$206.98
PnL
-$89.45
Record
34%
19214-36845 (56059)
Invested
$128.18
Value
$122.42
PnL
-$5.75
Record
68%
13194-6212 (19406)
Invested
$47.43
Value
$83
PnL
-$1.3
Record
53%
23594-20788 (44382)
LucerysInvested
$225.39
Value
$73.22
PnL
-$3.63
Record
72%
13841-5375 (19216)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$5.48
Value
$9.06
PnL
+$3.58
Record
17%
4496-22009 (26505)
Invested
$8.01
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$6.71
Record
37%
3298-5675 (8973)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$22.54
Value
$1.07
PnL
+$11.22
Record
40%
6536-9791 (16327)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.