Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + V?
10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Aug 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 83%
$2.0K
$35.25
80.2¢ → 81¢
+1% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
591h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 80.6¢ | $1.1K | $732.9 | +$14.75 | 35% 18181-34050 (52231) |
 2B9S | Noavg 81.2¢ | $592.89 | $559.46 | -$13.73 | 18% 4284-20059 (24343) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 80.5¢ | $656.83 | $259.99 | -$30.82 | 41% 6237-9133 (15370) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 81.6¢ | $187.86 | $168.62 | -$4.09 | 14% 461-2758 (3219) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 86.8¢ | $92.86 | $86.14 | -$6.72 | 42% 7028-9819 (16847) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $21.07 | $76.18 | +$6.13 | 53% 22636-19888 (42524) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 72.2¢ | $43.3 | $48.3 | +$5 | 59% 11839-8177 (20016) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 10.7¢ | $14.06 | $13.69 | +$58.9 | 49% 8853-9359 (18212) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.8¢ | $4.86 | $12.3 | +$4.06 | 53% 29258-26174 (55432) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $6.8 | $8.05 | +$1.25 | 31% 3488-7778 (11266) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $2.47 | $2.62 | +$0.15 | 40% 285-429 (714) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.54 | $0.54 | +$0.38 | 77% 12539-3686 (16225) |
Invested
$1,098.72
Value
$732.9
PnL
+$14.75
Record
35%
18181-34050 (52231)
2B9SInvested
$592.89
Value
$559.46
PnL
-$13.73
Record
18%
4284-20059 (24343)
HaradwaithInvested
$656.83
Value
$259.99
PnL
-$30.82
Record
41%
6237-9133 (15370)
IstarothInvested
$187.86
Value
$168.62
PnL
-$4.09
Record
14%
461-2758 (3219)
Invested
$92.86
Value
$86.14
PnL
-$6.72
Record
42%
7028-9819 (16847)
Invested
$21.07
Value
$76.18
PnL
+$6.13
Record
53%
22636-19888 (42524)
Invested
$43.3
Value
$48.3
PnL
+$5
Record
59%
11839-8177 (20016)
Invested
$14.06
Value
$13.69
PnL
+$58.9
Record
49%
8853-9359 (18212)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$4.86
Value
$12.3
PnL
+$4.06
Record
53%
29258-26174 (55432)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$8.05
PnL
+$1.25
Record
31%
3488-7778 (11266)
Invested
$2.47
Value
$2.62
PnL
+$0.15
Record
40%
285-429 (714)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.54
PnL
+$0.38
Record
77%
12539-3686 (16225)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.