Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Aug 1, 2027

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Sun, Aug 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$101.11

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 82.5¢

+11% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,529

Combined PnL+$101.28

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.02

Total Shares6

Combined PnL-$0.17

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

787h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 75.6¢	$690.3	$669.42	+$12.04	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.6¢	$458.45	$497.02	+$30.13
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.9¢	$200.08	$172.4	-$18.09
2B9S	Noavg 75.8¢	$606.03	$499.48	-$20.55	18% 4304-20139 (24443)
Istaroth	Noavg 78.8¢	$492	$429.16	-$1.8	15% 498-2922 (3420)
DO donthackme	Noavg 74.8¢	$97.05	$106.41	+$9.36	73% 12907-4853 (17760)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$83.75	$86.1	+$2.35	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$22.8	$72.14	+$5.28	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 32¢	$62	$65.6	+$87.07	49% 8853-9361 (18214)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$45.8	$49.2	+$3.4	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$40.26	$43.38	+$3.12	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 70.9¢	$25.88	$29.93	+$4.06	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 71¢	$16.16	$18.66	+$2.5	44% 6509-8177 (14686)
JO JordanMooney<$100	Noavg 78¢	$9.71	$9.65	+$5.82	36% 2020-3628 (5648)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 76¢	$7.6	$8.2	+$0.6	31% 3522-7876 (11398)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82¢	$5.06	$5.06	-$0	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 80¢	$2.6	$2.67	+$0.06	40% 291-436 (727)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.19	$1.02	-$0.17	77% 12390-3803 (16193)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$690.3

Value

$669.42

PnL

+$12.04

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

Both legs:

No$458.4575.6¢+$30.13

Yes$200.0820.9¢-$18.09

2B9S

Invested

$606.03

Value

$499.48

PnL

-$20.55

Record

18%

4304-20139 (24443)

Istaroth

Invested

$492

Value

$429.16

PnL

-$1.8

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

donthackme

Invested

$97.05

Value

$106.41

PnL

+$9.36

Record

73%

12907-4853 (17760)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$83.75

Value

$86.1

PnL

+$2.35

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$22.8

Value

$72.14

PnL

+$5.28

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$62

Value

$65.6

PnL

+$87.07

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$45.8

Value

$49.2

PnL

+$3.4

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$40.26

Value

$43.38

PnL

+$3.12

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$25.88

Value

$29.93

PnL

+$4.06

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

korda77<$100

Invested

$16.16

Value

$18.66

PnL

+$2.5

Record

44%

6509-8177 (14686)

JordanMooney<$100

Invested

$9.71

Value

$9.65

PnL

+$5.82

Record

36%

2020-3628 (5648)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

31%

3522-7876 (11398)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$0.06

Record

40%

291-436 (727)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.17

Record

77%

12390-3803 (16193)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

787h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.