Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $272 held · ends Aug 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$272
$42.06
99.9¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.8¢ | $139.03 | $138.47 | -$0.56 | 59% 11839-8177 (20016) |
DO donthackme | Noavg 99.9¢ | $112.65 | $112.14 | -$0.51 | 73% 12875-4800 (17675) |
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 99.5¢ | $123.35 | $9.95 | +$47.04 | 49% 8853-9359 (18212) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $9.99 | $9.95 | -$0.04 | 42% 7028-9819 (16847) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $4.84 | $1.42 | -$3.42 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $11.76 | $0.07 | -$0.46 | 36% 2021-3600 (5621) |
Invested
$139.03
Value
$138.47
PnL
-$0.56
Record
59%
11839-8177 (20016)
Invested
$112.65
Value
$112.14
PnL
-$0.51
Record
73%
12875-4800 (17675)
Invested
$123.35
Value
$9.95
PnL
+$47.04
Record
49%
8853-9359 (18212)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.95
PnL
-$0.04
Record
42%
7028-9819 (16847)
Invested
$4.84
Value
$1.42
PnL
-$3.42
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
Invested
$11.76
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.46
Record
36%
2021-3600 (5621)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.