Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + C?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Aug 1, 2027

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Sun, Aug 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$135.37

Smart Money Entry

41¢ → 49.5¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,820

Combined PnL+$169.94

No6 traders

Total Value$786.7

Total Shares1,543

Combined PnL-$34.57

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

126h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA madmartigan5CTR	Yesavg 48.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$1.59	25% 48-145 (193)
DR Dreamwire	Noavg 50¢	$500	$510	+$10	80% 4472-1139 (5611)
HaradwaithARB<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$358.5	$429.06	+$4.75	57% 41574-31333 (72907)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.1¢	$27.87	$215.45	+$43.3
└ No leg	Noavg 61.1¢	$255.74	$213.61	-$38.54
PL plumbis	Noavg 59.1¢	$293.51	$253.28	-$40.23	56% 69-54 (123)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100	Noavg 53.3¢	$197.86	$221.96	+$24.1	52% 9084-8296 (17380)
└ No leg	Noavg 53.3¢	$154.63	$147.99	+$10.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.2¢	$57.65	$73.97	+$13.33
JG JGripenCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$21.72	$133.63	+$111.9	— 0-4 (4)
2B9SCTR	Yesavg 14.3¢	$74.21	$107.77	+$31.58	15% 5011-29434 (34445)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$5.19	$22.9	+$17.71	55% 42191-34106 (76297)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$45.72	$13.73	+$7.15	62% 35968-22491 (58459)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$16.04	$10.37	-$5.66	30% 2958-6851 (9809)
WH whig<$100	Noavg 46.6¢	$6.11	$6.62	+$0.5	59% 428-296 (724)
JO JordanMooney<$100	Noavg 55.4¢	$3.77	$3.91	+$0.15	31% 2585-5634 (8219)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$1.84	$2.52	+$0.68	25% 697-2085 (2782)

madmartigan5CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,097.46

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.59

Record

25%

48-145 (193)

Dreamwire

Invested

$500

Value

$510

PnL

+$10

Record

80%

4472-1139 (5611)

HaradwaithARB<$100

Invested

$358.5

Value

$429.06

PnL

+$4.75

Record

57%

41574-31333 (72907)

Both legs:

Yes$27.876.1¢+$43.3

No$255.7461.1¢-$38.54

plumbis

Invested

$293.51

Value

$253.28

PnL

-$40.23

Record

56%

69-54 (123)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100

Invested

$197.86

Value

$221.96

PnL

+$24.1

Record

52%

9084-8296 (17380)

Both legs:

No$154.6353.3¢+$10.77

Yes$57.6538.2¢+$13.33

JGripenCTR

Yes

Invested

$21.72

Value

$133.63

PnL

+$111.9

Record

—

0-4 (4)

2B9SCTR

Yes

Invested

$74.21

Value

$107.77

PnL

+$31.58

Record

15%

5011-29434 (34445)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.19

Value

$22.9

PnL

+$17.71

Record

55%

42191-34106 (76297)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.72

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$7.15

Record

62%

35968-22491 (58459)

123987456<$100

Invested

$16.04

Value

$10.37

PnL

-$5.66

Record

30%

2958-6851 (9809)

whig<$100

Invested

$6.11

Value

$6.62

PnL

+$0.5

Record

59%

428-296 (724)

JordanMooney<$100

Invested

$3.77

Value

$3.91

PnL

+$0.15

Record

31%

2585-5634 (8219)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$1.84

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$0.68

Record

25%

697-2085 (2782)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

126h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.