Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Aug 1, 2027

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Sun, Aug 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$41.86

Smart Money Entry

87.7¢ → 89.4¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$974.72

Total Shares1,031

Combined PnL+$29.63

Yes4 traders

Total Value$34.15

Total Shares261

Combined PnL+$12.23

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 88.6¢	$724.23	$574.75	-$10.59	14% 513-3102 (3615)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 88.6¢	$104.45	$102.45	-$2	35% 18852-34867 (53719)
Haradwaith	Noavg 90.5¢	$232.03	$95.58	-$11.87	41% 6394-9370 (15764)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$87.97	$76.45	-$6.89	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$60.89	$58.38	-$0.3	18% 1302-6138 (7440)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 88¢	$46.98	$46.74	-$0.23	27% 549-1481 (2030)
2B9SCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$219.86	$28.8	+$17.23	18% 4430-20777 (25207)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 14.5¢	$19.39	$17.52	+$61.67	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$105.66	$3.67	-$5.84	72% 14222-5519 (19741)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$3	$2.84	-$0.16	40% 304-464 (768)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.79	$1.54	+$0.75	36% 2034-3660 (5694)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$0.05	$0.13	+$0.08	25% 1751-5373 (7124)

Istaroth

Invested

$724.23

Value

$574.75

PnL

-$10.59

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$104.45

Value

$102.45

PnL

-$2

Record

35%

18852-34867 (53719)

Haradwaith

Invested

$232.03

Value

$95.58

PnL

-$11.87

Record

41%

6394-9370 (15764)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$87.97

Value

$76.45

PnL

-$6.89

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$60.89

Value

$58.38

PnL

-$0.3

Record

18%

1302-6138 (7440)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$46.98

Value

$46.74

PnL

-$0.23

Record

27%

549-1481 (2030)

2B9SCTR

Yes

Invested

$219.86

Value

$28.8

PnL

+$17.23

Record

18%

4430-20777 (25207)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$19.39

Value

$17.52

PnL

+$61.67

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$105.66

Value

$3.67

PnL

-$5.84

Record

72%

14222-5519 (19741)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

Value

$2.84

PnL

-$0.16

Record

40%

304-464 (768)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.79

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.75

Record

36%

2034-3660 (5694)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.08

Record

25%

1751-5373 (7124)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.8%

89.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.