Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $255 held · ends Aug 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Aug 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$255.25

Combined PnL

$52.45

Smart Money Entry

96.3¢ → 99.2¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$254.92

Total Shares255

Combined PnL+$56.1

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.33

Total Shares157

Combined PnL-$3.65

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.9¢	$138.16	$138.09	-$0.07	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 99.9¢	$175.81	$106.84	-$0.06	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 8.1¢	$9.99	$9.99	+$56.22	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$3.15	$0.13	-$3.02	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$11.76	$0.11	-$0.42	36% 2021-3600 (5621)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.3	$0.09	-$0.21	18% 4284-20059 (24343)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$138.16

Value

$138.09

PnL

-$0.07

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

godblessme2026

Invested

$175.81

Value

$106.84

PnL

-$0.06

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$56.22

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.15

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$3.02

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.76

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.42

Record

36%

2021-3600 (5621)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.21

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.