Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$370.12

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 77.5¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,578

Combined PnL+$279.56

Yes4 traders

Total Value$69.08

Total Shares307

Combined PnL+$90.56

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
clazzy1	Noavg 70.7¢	$707.29	$775	+$31	65% 500-275 (775)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 68.1¢	$214.93	$207.02	+$112.83	34% 19149-36800 (55949)
Haradwaith	Noavg 71¢	$170.24	$178	+$41.01	40% 6509-9769 (16278)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 11.6¢	$34.02	$76.82	+$93.82	52% 30802-28940 (59742)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$39.68	$26.94	+$31.32	72% 13773-5258 (19031)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	No	$19.91	$19.91	+$0.89	44% 2282-2903 (5185)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$1.59	$17.1	+$15.51	26% 562-1631 (2193)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.6¢	$64.55	$13.79	+$47.47	17% 1312-6537 (7849)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$15	$11.25	-$3.75	19% 2858-12194 (15052)

clazzy1

Invested

$707.29

Value

$775

PnL

+$31

Record

65%

500-275 (775)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$214.93

Value

$207.02

PnL

+$112.83

Record

34%

19149-36800 (55949)

Haradwaith

Invested

$170.24

Value

$178

PnL

+$41.01

Record

40%

6509-9769 (16278)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$34.02

Value

$76.82

PnL

+$93.82

Record

52%

30802-28940 (59742)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.68

Value

$26.94

PnL

+$31.32

Record

72%

13773-5258 (19031)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$19.91

Value

$19.91

PnL

+$0.89

Record

44%

2282-2903 (5185)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.59

Value

$17.1

PnL

+$15.51

Record

26%

562-1631 (2193)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.55

Value

$13.79

PnL

+$47.47

Record

17%

1312-6537 (7849)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$11.25

PnL

-$3.75

Record

19%

2858-12194 (15052)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.