Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 82¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 8

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$150.48

Combined PnL

$36.17

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$70.57

Total Shares402

Combined PnL+$27.85

No3 traders

Total Value$79.78

Total Shares97

Combined PnL+$8.33

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$64.74	$68.94	+$35.79	35% 17407-32097 (49504)
HE HerrieDavis<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$28.36	$30.09	+$1.72	36% 2145-3843 (5988)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 65.2¢	$21.84	$27.31	+$5.47	53% 7652-6774 (14426)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$21.01	$22.39	+$1.14	48% 102-109 (211)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$19.54	$1.63	-$7.94	39% 3006-4778 (7784)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.74

Value

$68.94

PnL

+$35.79

Record

35%

17407-32097 (49504)

HerrieDavis<$100

Invested

$28.36

Value

$30.09

PnL

+$1.72

Record

36%

2145-3843 (5988)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$21.84

Value

$27.31

PnL

+$5.47

Record

53%

7652-6774 (14426)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758<$100

Invested

$21.01

Value

$22.39

PnL

+$1.14

Record

48%

102-109 (211)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.54

Value

$1.63

PnL

-$7.94

Record

39%

3006-4778 (7784)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.1%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.