Will the next Gemini model family be named Gemini Neon?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $84 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$84.48
-$13.24
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $25.99 | $26.35 | +$0.36 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $24.4 | $22.75 | -$1.65 | 79% 380-101 (481) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $19.24 | $18.2 | -$1.04 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $10.49 | $9.74 | -$0.75 | 26% 1233-3522 (4755) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $4.88 | +$0.03 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $12.75 | $2.57 | -$10.18 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
Invested
$25.99
Value
$26.35
PnL
+$0.36
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Invested
$24.4
Value
$22.75
PnL
-$1.65
Record
79%
380-101 (481)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.24
Value
$18.2
PnL
-$1.04
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$10.49
Value
$9.74
PnL
-$0.75
Record
26%
1233-3522 (4755)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.88
PnL
+$0.03
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
Invested
$12.75
Value
$2.57
PnL
-$10.18
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.