Will the next Gemini model family be named Gemini Krypton?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 89¢ · $109 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$108.63
$6.73
91¢ → 88.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 78.8¢ | $27.95 | $34.43 | +$6.48 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $30.36 | $30.12 | -$0.24 | 79% 380-101 (481) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $28.22 | $28.08 | -$0.13 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $10.49 | $10.39 | -$0.1 | 26% 1233-3522 (4755) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 82.3¢ | $4.12 | $4.85 | +$0.74 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.78 | $0.75 | -$0.03 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$27.95
Value
$34.43
PnL
+$6.48
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$30.36
Value
$30.12
PnL
-$0.24
Record
79%
380-101 (481)
Invested
$28.22
Value
$28.08
PnL
-$0.13
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Invested
$10.49
Value
$10.39
PnL
-$0.1
Record
26%
1233-3522 (4755)
Invested
$4.12
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0.74
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$0.03
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.