Will the next Gemini model family be named Gemini Hyperion?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 97¢ · $137 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$137.17
-$16.15
96.7¢ → 96.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $53.45 | $52.52 | -$0.93 | 51% 4719-4553 (9272) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $28.61 | $27.39 | -$1.22 | 53% 5734-5130 (10864) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $23.9 | $23.68 | -$0.22 | 79% 432-115 (547) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $16.47 | $16.82 | +$0.36 | 3% 1-28 (29) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $10.49 | $10.13 | -$0.35 | 26% 1235-3523 (4758) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $20.4 | $6.63 | -$13.77 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$53.45
Value
$52.52
PnL
-$0.93
Record
51%
4719-4553 (9272)
Invested
$28.61
Value
$27.39
PnL
-$1.22
Record
53%
5734-5130 (10864)
Invested
$23.9
Value
$23.68
PnL
-$0.22
Record
79%
432-115 (547)
Invested
$16.47
Value
$16.82
PnL
+$0.36
Record
3%
1-28 (29)
Invested
$10.49
Value
$10.13
PnL
-$0.35
Record
26%
1235-3523 (4758)
Invested
$20.4
Value
$6.63
PnL
-$13.77
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.