Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (79%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Gemini model family be named Gemini Hydrogen?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 22¢ · $134 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 75%
$134.37
$12.49
Research grade
AvoidNo at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 66.3¢ | $72.2 | $81.16 | +$8.96 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 77¢ | $23.87 | $23.63 | -$0.24 | 10% 3-26 (29) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 18.5¢ | $10.15 | $12.33 | +$2.18 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 18.3¢ | $5.29 | $5.21 | -$0.09 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 12.4¢ | $3.1 | $4.5 | +$1.4 | 79% 380-101 (481) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $5 | $4.5 | -$0.5 | 4% 1-27 (28) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $1.07 | $1.93 | +$0.86 | 26% 1233-3522 (4755) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $1.2 | $1.13 | -$0.07 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
Invested
$72.2
Value
$81.16
PnL
+$8.96
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
Invested
$23.87
Value
$23.63
PnL
-$0.24
Record
10%
3-26 (29)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$10.15
Value
$12.33
PnL
+$2.18
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$5.29
Value
$5.21
PnL
-$0.09
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Invested
$3.1
Value
$4.5
PnL
+$1.4
Record
79%
380-101 (481)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
4%
1-27 (28)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$1.93
PnL
+$0.86
Record
26%
1233-3522 (4755)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.13
PnL
-$0.07
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.