Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 17, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 36¢ · $92 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$91.54
$77.68
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $12.59 | $78.96 | +$66.37 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.11 | $4.97 | +$4.57 | 63% 33619-19478 (53097) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $20.41 | $3.88 | +$3.47 | 19% 2981-12794 (15775) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yes | $2.19 | $2.19 | +$1.94 | 46% 10314-12253 (22567) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $6.23 | $1.55 | +$1.33 | 28% 3048-7956 (11004) |
Invested
$12.59
Value
$78.96
PnL
+$66.37
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$4.97
PnL
+$4.57
Record
63%
33619-19478 (53097)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$20.41
Value
$3.88
PnL
+$3.47
Record
19%
2981-12794 (15775)
Invested
$2.19
Value
$2.19
PnL
+$1.94
Record
46%
10314-12253 (22567)
Invested
$6.23
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$1.33
Record
28%
3048-7956 (11004)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.