Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) be released on November 14, 2026?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Yes 80%
$100
-$12.64
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $99.85 | $100 | +$0.15 | 6% 4-58 (62) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 2¢ | $151.29 | — | -$7.91 | 38% 3782-6154 (9936) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $2.04 | — | -$2.04 | 17% 95-455 (550) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.56 | — | -$0.56 | 42% 5184-7017 (12201) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.24 | — | -$0.24 | 18% 858-4027 (4885) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $24.81 | — | -$0.47 | 43% 1132-1499 (2631) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $25.72 | — | -$0.05 | 25% 1353-4101 (5454) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | — | -$1.52 | 34% 337-661 (998) |
Invested
$99.85
Value
$100
PnL
+$0.15
Record
6%
4-58 (62)
Invested
$151.29
Value
—
PnL
-$7.91
Record
38%
3782-6154 (9936)
Invested
$2.04
Value
—
PnL
-$2.04
Record
17%
95-455 (550)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.56
Value
—
PnL
-$0.56
Record
42%
5184-7017 (12201)
Invested
$0.24
Value
—
PnL
-$0.24
Record
18%
858-4027 (4885)
Invested
$24.81
Value
—
PnL
-$0.47
Record
43%
1132-1499 (2631)
Invested
$25.72
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
25%
1353-4101 (5454)
Invested
$79.92
Value
—
PnL
-$1.52
Record
34%
337-661 (998)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876
No — $100
xtxpleasecallme
CTRYes — $0
merod
CTRYes — $0
balthazar
CTRYes — $0
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179
CTRYes — $0
alex20011
No — $0
aHjCz
No — $0
godblessme2026
No — $0