Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 49¢ · $191 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$191.14
-$49.24
84.4¢ → 49¢
-42% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 43.9¢ | $104.56 | $123.03 | +$18.47 | 41% 3064-4447 (7511) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43.9¢ | $64.56 | $72.03 | +$7.47 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40¢ | $40 | $51 | +$11 | |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $67.2 | $39.2 | -$28 | 50% 22-22 (44) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $50.15 | $28.91 | -$21.24 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.