Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (94%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 6.3¢ · $93 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$92.62
-$127.65
Research grade
AvoidNo at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 94%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Yesavg 91.7¢ | $117.92 | $60 | -$28.36 | — 1-18 (19) |
KL klli27<$100 | Yesavg 64.5¢ | $39.12 | $15.81 | -$18.55 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.2¢ | $75.84 | $12.84 | -$63 | 41% 3084-4451 (7535) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $21.5 | $2.71 | -$18.79 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 1¢ | $0.2 | $1.26 | +$1.06 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
Invested
$117.92
Value
$60
PnL
-$28.36
Record
—
1-18 (19)
Invested
$39.12
Value
$15.81
PnL
-$18.55
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
Invested
$75.84
Value
$12.84
PnL
-$63
Record
41%
3084-4451 (7535)
Invested
$21.5
Value
$2.71
PnL
-$18.79
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.2
Value
$1.26
PnL
+$1.06
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.